Working papers and studies.
We publish once an idea is finished with: a design we are ready to discuss, or a study whose outcome is settled. Live strategies stay private.
Agentic trading
Can self-learning AI agents develop trading strategies of their own, and how would anyone know? We study the question at the level of a firm: a population of agents with careers, scored on forecasts rather than luck.
Prediction markets
Short-dated event markets are quoted by a handful of makers and move when faster markets move. We study how they are quoted, where resting orders sit in the queue, and how quickly quotes react.
Resting deep: maker orders in five-minute crypto prediction markets
How deep resting orders behave when large orders sweep the book, studied with a pre-registered forward test and paper trading only. SoonSolana latency
On Solana a block is produced every 400 milliseconds by a rotating leader. Where a transaction lands inside that window decides what it is worth. We measure it directly.
Inside the slot: measuring where our transactions land on Solana
Landing rate and position in the block, measured with transactions that land on chain but never trade. SoonEmerging venues
New chains and sequencer designs change who gets to trade first. We look at ordering rules, data feeds and what a new entrant can and cannot reach. Notes in this area are in preparation.
Method
How we run research: what gets written down before a test, how results are recorded, and what it takes for an idea to reach capital.